Mumbai: Everyone is guessing about the next Chief Minister of Maharashtra and BJP continues to be silent about it’s decision. CM candidate Eknath Shinde of Shiv Sena has himself withdrawn his name saying he would not have any objection if the BJP decided otherwise. This sudden move has bizarrely paved the way for BJP bigwig and former Maharashtra deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, but political analysts are not amused as the BJP leadership led by prime minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah has never ceased to spring surprises.
Further fuel has been added to the debate by a secret parley Vinod Tawde BJP National General Secretary with Amit Shah late on Wednesday sparking talks of a reversal on the highly sensitive CM candidate. The BJP leadership is today very cautious about the announcement of the name as all political and caste dynamics are being monitored before the announcement. Sharing of votes and especially the main Marathas voters’ base, the BJP wants to be cautious not to lose vote base it relies on.
Taking his theatrical act that effectively seemed to rule him out of the race, Eknath Shinde claimed that he had apprised both, PM Modi and Amit Shah of his intentions of accepting whatever the BJP wishes. Again, he claimed his party’s total support regarding government formation and said that the Shiv Sena will not act as an obstruction if the BJP picks its CM candidate. Obviously, this announcement has positioned Devendra Fadnavis, one of the most recognisable political figures in Maharashtra, as the leader. However, talk within the BJP about eligibility of non-Brahmin or non-Maratha candidates has complicated the issue.
The caste factor remains very much an active factor in the operations of the BJP. Fadnavis is a Brahmin and this is regarded as a vote-gathering group in Maharashtra, at least certainly electorally significant, while Shinde is a Maratha. The BJP leadership it seems is also wary of the Maratha votes that can turn against the party if all powers pass on to a non-Maratha head.
Over the years, Maratha votes were central to political evolution of the state with the governments being formed based on these votes. Political parties such as the BJP that had in the past not made a pit stop in the Mumbai city, are now seeking some sort of containment on its extremism so as not to off end this demography, could even offer the deputy CM post to both the Shiv Sena and the NCP. As per some information CP NCP’s Ajit Pawar is likely to be sworn in as one of the deputy CM’s while the Shiv Sena leader is expected to be another minister even though it may not be Shinde.
In this calculus, Amit Shah has been treading the corridors and diligent enough to feel out the other BJP state chiefs especially Vinod Tawde on the political cost or benefit of having a non-Maratha chief minister.
Vinod Tawde an OBC leader of the party and well connected with Maharashtra politics is proving boon for the party chief in managing such volatile caste politics. While Tawde proposed staying neutral between BJP’s OBC support base and the Maratha dominant voting community, his recommendations have also allegedly revived efforts as to whether other aspirants should also stake their claims against Fadnavis. This has made the BJP put its CM candidate announcement comment on the slow side, thus creating a new round of speculation.
As for instance, BJP’s traditional bull’s eye in Maharashtra has benefited OBC voters to the extent that it is careful not create some unrest among this community while also aligning the Maharashtra’s electorates with the 2024 Lok Sabha poll plan of the party.
Fadnavis as CM: Clear Path or Complication?
Despite this, the BJP leadership understands Devendra Fadnavis’s experience and poll popularity of having been CM earlier and facing the assembly, some factions within the BJP which are OBC Loren resisted him. During his previous tenure, major Bye-poll debacle has resulted into organisational revolt and aggregatemany of senior functionay like Eknath Khadse left the party and there were effetc on party due to dissatisfaction over his leadership style raised by Pankaja Munde.
Some of these past factors are still being incorporated into BJP’s decision making process to-date. The BJP wants to maintain its position in Maharashtra in particular after it lost some assembly seats in the recent state and national assembly polls after casting the caste equation to its advantage.
What’s Next for Maharashtra?
Some sources indicate that for the BJP, the top leadership might be thinking of new faces for the post of the Chief Minister as they have always sprung unexpected moves on the rival parties. But there is a chance to bet on the proven leaders like Fadnavis, for example, which means an opportunity to win.
The probable BJP strategy in the upcoming state assembly polls that will ensure the Maratha vote again will be the selection in the government team of deputy chief ministers from the community.” In this way, accordingly sharing elongated representation with partners (NCP and SS), the BJP tries to appear more extensive than it really is in actuality while maintaining primary control over the alliance government.
Why This Decision Matters
Maharashtra unchanged continues to be politically vital state of India that importantly tips the balance in the Lok Sabha. After achieving great successes in assembly elections, the BJP is not taking any chance with any move that could upset voter positioning before the 2024 general elections. For the present, all attention is focused on the BJP leadership to declare on whether a well experienced Maha warhorse like Fadnavis features or a dark horse MS.