Kolkata: After the recent win in Bihar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has turned his focus to West Bengal, saying it is time to end what he calls “jungle raj” in the state.
However, the situation is more complicated than his strong words suggest. For the BJP, winning Bengal in 2026 is not just another election. It is now a matter of prestige, a test of its growing influence in the east, and, according to some insiders, a crucial moment for the party.
What makes the coming contest so riveting is the razor-thin margin. The upcoming election is especially interesting because the margin between winning and losing is so small. Experts say that if just 5 per cent of votes shift from the Trinamool Congress to the BJP, the outcome could change completely. In the 2021 Assembly polls, the BJP won a record 77 seats with 38 per cent of the vote, while the TMC won 215 seats with 48 per cent. Many of the BJP’s losses were by very narrow margins — 38 seats by less than 5 per cent and another 75 by under 10 per cent. Even a small change in these numbers could help the BJP reach the 148-seat majority in the 294-member House.
Since its formation in 1980, the BJP has never tasted power in West Bengal. The 2014 Modi wave produced just two Lok Sabha seats and zero Assembly MLAs in 2015. By 2019, the party surged to 18 of 42 Lok Sabha seats. The 2021 Assembly election was its best showing; yet it still fell short. A handful of MLAs later crossed over, trimming the numbers, but the contest has crystallised into a straight BJP-versus-TMC fight.
Mamata Banerjee, who has ruled the state since 2011, has repeatedly outmanoeuvred the saffron camp across six successive polls — Assembly and Lok Sabha — leaving BJP workers both frustrated and hungry for revenge.
However, anti-incumbency is now a major challenge for the TMC. Issues like unemployment, local complaints, and ongoing rumours of corruption among party leaders have caused clear problems. There is noticeable frustration on the streets, especially in rural areas and among young people. This situation gives the BJP an opportunity.
Still, senior leaders and neutral observers warn that Bengal is different from Bihar. Political analyst Rashid Kidwai points out that the BJP faces big challenges: strengthening Modi’s image after the Bihar win, building a stronger presence in eastern India, trying to win power on its own, showing it can beat a strong regional leader, and boosting party morale after the 2024 Lok Sabha loss.
The new state president, Suvendu Bhattacharya’s energetic approach, and excitement after the Bihar victory have all helped build momentum.
However, CSDS professor and election analyst Hilal Ahmed offers a realistic perspective. Bengal’s strong Bengali identity, complex history, cultural sensitivities, and political details require careful attention. The “infiltrator” message that worked in other places needs to be adjusted here, as it could turn away parts of the Hindu voters the BJP relies on. Local issues, such as pride in the Bengali language, memories of the Left’s long rule, and the TMC’s welfare programmes, cannot be ignored by using a national approach. For the BJP high command, the Bengal campaign is therefore more than a state election. It is about proving that the party’s eastern expansion is not a flash in the pan but a permanent shift in India’s political geography.
For Mamata Banerjee and the TMC, it is a fight to protect a 14-year legacy and the state’s distinctive political culture. A small 5 per cent shift in votes could make all the difference. The two parties are in a tough fight, and this is one of the most intense rivalries in Indian politics.
The result of the 2026 West Bengal election may not only decide who leads the state government but also change the balance of power in eastern India for years to come.
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