Mumbai: Following the end of the nominations for the Maharashtra assembly elections, more political aspects have come into focus. This time around the BJP’s strategy adopted is to stick with its existing sitting MLAs and not follow the no repeat theory that has been effective in Gujarat, UP, MP and Haryana. When in these states BJP’s tactic of replacing incumbents worked to overcome anti-incumbency sentiments, in Maharashtra the party has chosen to stick with siting MLAs. Likewise, Congress has not made a replacement at large of its sitting legislators at a go.
Strategies Take Shape: Focus on Incumbents
This tendency can be seen when the lists of candidates are unveiled: BJP and Congress both rely rather significantly on their current members of the legislative assembly. The two factions of the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and the earlier chief Uddhav Thackeray have also displayed confidence in their loyalties by only changing new candidates for seats they had lost earlier. The big question: which of them got their tickets chopped in sitting MLAs?
In all 18 tickets cut across the different parties
Out of 288 Maharashtra assembly seats, nineteen sitting MLAs have been shown the door by the presidential/ general secretary of the parties that have been in the ruling formation. Excluding those eight, as many as 97 of the 105 BJP MLAs will be in the fray for the future elections. On the other hand, Congress has reduced tickets for five of its MLAs most of whom crossed over during Rajya Sabha poll and indulged in cross voting. All three parties – Ajit Pawar’s NCP, Sharad Pawar’s NCP(S) and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena – trounced two sitting MLAs each. Out of this micromland, only four MLAs were originally elected by Uddhav Thackeray’s faction of Shiv Sena, and all of them won the seats.
Though the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo has not changed much in the BJP list, released on January 27, 2021 by the party management, the Gujarat team has brought those drastic changes in creating its second list which will go largely the regional BJP voters cutting eight incumbent tickets.
Out of 105 winners in the 2019 elections, only eight recently joined the party and did not secure an MLAs position. Prominent ticket swaps of BJP here are Sunil Rane from Borivali who is replaced by Sanjay Upadhyay and Sandeep Dhurve of Arni who is replaced by Raju Todsam. In Umarga, there is replacement of Namdev Sasane by Kisan Wankhede and Sumit Wankhede, a relative of newly elected deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis , has been given ticket to be replaced Dada Kenche from Arvi.
In Nagpur Central BJP has swapped Vikas Kumbhare with Praveen Datke who is MLC. Incidentally for the Chinchwad seat, instead of Ashwini Jagtap who is related to Shankar Jagtap this candidate will be the nominee. Kalya’s incarcerated MLA Ganpat Gaikwad was succeeded by his wife Sulbha Gaikwad while four time Washim MLA Laxman Malik’s place was taken by Shyam Khode.
Congress Halts Five Sitting MLAs
Congress reduced tickets for five of its sitting MLAs, mainly to those who rebelled in the Rajya Sabha elections. New ones are: Hemant Ogle of Shrirampur who replaced the sitting MLA Lahu Kanade and Rajkumar Puram of Amgaon replacing Sahasram Korote. In Raver, Dhananjay Raver bows out his father, present MLA Shirish Chaudhary.
Congress reshuffled its list and replaced the incumbent MLA Sulbha Khodeke of Amravati by Sunil Deshmukh and Hiraman Khosark competing from Igatpuri by Lekhibhau Jadhav. We have a rebel in Khodeke and Khoskar both of whom are now in the NCP contesting for Ajit Pawar.
Passage Reductions in the NCP, Ajit Pawar, & Shinde Factions
The Sharad Pawar floated NCP(S) expelled two candidates, one of them was Anil Deshmukh, whose son Salil Deshmukh will be the party nominee in Katol. On the other hand, the Madhav MLA Babanrao Shinde lost his position to Abhijit Patil after the split. Ajit Pawar’s NCP has also reduced two segments; Manohar Chandrikapure from Arjuni Morarji the BJP’s Rajkumar Badole the replacing and Balasaheb Ajbe from Ashti, the former MLC Suresh Dhas.
In the Palghar constituency the Shinde faction of Shiv Sena denied ticket to the present MLA Srinivas Vanga and gave ticket to the former MP Rajendra Gavit. Vanga was one of the MLAs of Shiv Sena who switched to Shinde led camp. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction did not lose any of its sitting MLAs, the party has put it stock in loyalists.
Maharashtra shows BJP is avoiding ‘No-Repeat Theory’
KJP’s ‘No Repeat’ formula has worked in different states, but BJP has not used it as much in Maharashtra where it has slashed only eight MLA tickets. BJP’s logic, most probably, is based on Maharashtra’s political volatile nature in the past five years when there were factions in both the NCP and the Shiv Sena. Congress too had rebellions, the BJP MLA faction has not splintered and therefore, it is loyalty that counts when the party decides on a candidate.