New Delhi: The escalating military conflict in the Middle East is sending shockwaves through the global economy, driving international crude oil prices to a six-week high. Rising tensions between the United States and Iran, coupled with repeated attacks on commercial oil vessels, have sparked immense volatility and fear across global energy markets.
The crisis intensified after Iran issued a stern warning, threatening to destroy the energy infrastructure of the entire Middle East if its own energy assets are targeted. Following this threat, Brent crude futures surged by $1.03 to close at $97.31 per barrel, briefly touching $98.06 during trading—the highest level recorded since July 24. Concurrently, WTI crude jumped to $92.65 per barrel, peaking at $93.29 during intra-day trading.
Market analysts warn that if the military standoff persists, the soaring oil prices will severely impact the pockets of the common public.
The verbal sparring between the two nations has rapidly translated into maritime warfare. According to marine intelligence firm Marisks, both the U.S. and Iran have begun openly targeting commercial oil tankers and warships. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime artery for global energy supplies, has effectively become a war zone. Data analytics firm Kpler reported that over the past 10 days, an average of only 10 commercial ships have managed to navigate this route daily—the lowest figure since May.
“If the movement of ships through this route comes to a complete halt, the world could face an unprecedented supply shock,” cautioned Mohsen Rezaee, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, indicating that Iran might soon declare a restricted zone beyond the region.
The conflict’s ripple effects are already reaching other Arab nations. A recent Financial Times report stated that Saudi Aramco’s Jazan oil refinery was attacked, and damage assessments are underway. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is actively developing alternative routes for its energy exports.
Global brokerage firm Goldman Sachs has issued a grim forecast, warning that if attacks on maritime vessels continue, crude oil prices could breach the $120 per barrel mark. Adding to the supply woes, the OPEC+ alliance has decided to keep its current production policy unchanged, further exacerbating the global oil shortage.
For heavily import-dependent nations like India, which purchases over 80 percent of its crude oil requirements from international markets, prices crossing the $100 or $120 threshold would have a direct and severe economic impact.