New Delhi: If Lok Sabha elections were held today, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), could dominate with 324 seats, a significant jump from its 293-seat tally in 2024, according to the latest India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation survey. In contrast, the Congress-led INDIA bloc, which challenged the NDA with 234 seats last year, is projected to slump to 208 seats, reflecting a shifting political tide as the Opposition grapples with recent electoral setbacks.
A Resurgent NDA
The survey, conducted between July 1 and August 14, 2025, gathered insights from 2,06,826 respondents across all Lok Sabha constituencies, offering a comprehensive snapshot of voter sentiment. The NDA’s projected rise to 324 seats signals a robust recovery from the 2024 elections, where the BJP, despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s towering popularity, secured only 240 seats — 32 short of the 272 needed for a solo majority. With its allies, the NDA crossed the finish line with 293 seats, forming the government for a third consecutive term.
The survey predicts the BJP alone could win 260 seats if polls were held now, still shy of a majority but a notable improvement from 2024. The NDA’s vote share is expected to climb to 46.7%, up from 44% last year, underscoring growing voter confidence in its leadership and policies.
INDIA Bloc’s Decline
The INDIA bloc, which stunned the NDA in 2024 by securing 234 seats, faces a potential setback, with the survey forecasting a drop to 208 seats. The Congress, a key player in the alliance, is projected to win 97 seats, marginally down from its 99 in 2024 but up from the 78 seats predicted in the February 2025 survey. The bloc’s vote share is expected to dip to 40.9%, a decline from its 2024 performance, reflecting challenges in maintaining momentum.
The Opposition’s fortunes have waned since the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, particularly after losses in key state elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi. These defeats have dented the INDIA bloc’s credibility, allowing the NDA to capitalise on its governance record and Modi’s enduring appeal.
A Tale Of Triumph And Setbacks
The 2024 elections were a reality check for the BJP, which fell short of its ambitious “400-paar” target. Despite this, the NDA’s coalition strength ensured Modi’s third term as Prime Minister, a feat matched only by Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi. The survey suggests that the NDA has since regained ground, leveraging its victories in state polls and addressing voter concerns to bolster its image.
For the Congress-led INDIA bloc, the survey’s findings highlight a need for introspection. While the alliance gave the NDA a tough fight in 2024, its inability to sustain that momentum in state elections has weakened its position. The projected 97 seats for Congress indicate a modest recovery from earlier lows, but the gap with the NDA remains stark.
What Drives The Shift?
The survey’s findings point to several factors shaping voter preferences. The NDA’s focus on development, infrastructure, and Modi’s leadership continues to resonate, while the Opposition’s narrative, including claims of “vote chori,” has struggled to gain traction. The increase in the NDA’s vote share to 46.7% suggests a consolidation of support, even as the BJP relies on allies to cross the majority mark.
As India’s political landscape evolves, the Mood of the Nation survey offers a glimpse into a potential future where the NDA strengthens its grip, while the INDIA bloc faces an uphill battle to regain ground. With elections still years away, these projections serve as a wake-up call for both sides to refine their strategies and connect with the electorate.