New Delhi: The economic ties between India and China, which are among the biggest economies in the world, are spiralling upward at a very rapid pace. This set of developments, of course, could be globally worrisome too, especially for other large economies. Trade between these two countries and developing countries has increased significantly, according to a recent United Nations report.
The UN report, which examines data for the final quarter of 2024, from October to December, suggested that global trade growth had outperformed expectations, and countries like India and China still recorded above-average trade growth. On the other hand, the report also warns about the possible onset of a global recession. Global trade amounted to about $33,000 billion in 2024, a 9% increase compared to 2023, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). This was primarily due to growth in emerging markets—China and India experienced the fastest growth— and a decline in trade in most developed countries.
In the last quarter of 2024, China and India both had a favourable record of growth in their trade while the U.S. still remained a major locomotive in the world economy. While trade trends were mixed among major economies, Chinese and Indian exports continued to increase, along with the GSLT. Export growth in the country was 7% in this period, from 2% in the previous year.
On the other hand, South Korea saw its export growth stall, though it still ranked among the highest in the world year by year. In the same quarter, export growth for the U.S. economy dipped, but import growth remained decent. Besides Vietnam, some other regions, such as Japan, Russia, South Africa, and the European Union, all recorded negative import growth trends on both a quarterly and an annual basis.
This data is especially pertinent in light of the new administration in the U.S. When Donald Trump took office as the president of the United States, he started a trade war with countries like China to keep their economic powers in check and support the U.S. manufacturing sector under the “Make in America” agenda. The UN numbers back up the idea that the deterioration of US exports has become a focus of concern—and perhaps the basis for Trump’s trade policies.