New Delhi: In recent years, Myanmar has faced brutal civil war and turmoil, with the military junta on one side and a number of rebel factions, including the Arakan Army, on the other. This chaos influences the country of Myanmar, along with its bordering states, such as China, Bangladesh, and India. In particular, China has been taking advantage of the confusion to extend its tentacles, which has been a strategic headache for India.
Concerns Raised By Intelligence Reports
Chinese influence in Myanmar is alarming and an indicator of a security threat for India, especially for northeastern states like Manipur, which are already tackling insurgency problems, Indian intelligence agencies have warned. Given the over 1,693-kilometre border between India and Myanmar, it is imperative to enhance monitoring and security measures to prevent potential threats across the entire country.
Might Makes Right, All the Economic Time
China has greatly strengthened its military and economic presence in Myanmar. For one, it has set up advanced radar installations, some large phased array radars (LPAR), in Yunnan province close to the Myanmar border, which are capable of extensive monitoring of the area. Simultaneously, China’s major stride in Myanmar is the increase of its bilateral trade with Myanmar to over two billion dollars, amounting to twice the amount of India-Myanmar trade.
That economic involvement does not characterize all the ways China establishes influence, however. It has been playing an active diplomatic game with Myanmar’s military rulers while also allegedly providing weaponry to some of its rebel groups, like the Arakan Army. Together, this dual approach has added to instability in the region and can have direct repercussions for India. Among these is the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, whose crucial stretch passes through Manipur. China’s stability added to Myanmar’s tendency to cast a dark shadow, which passed in favour of this strategic project of India and its large regional interests.
China’s String of Pearls Strategy: Implications for India
The regional growth of China goes with the ‘String of Pearls’ policy of China that is aimed at surrounding India by developing infrastructure, bases, and so on, in neighbouring countries. China can deepen its access to the Indian Ocean by expanding its footprint in Myanmar and thereby enable alternative trade routes away from the Malacca Strait. Such a loss could deal a dramatic blow to India’s strategic posture and its ‘Act East’ policy that seeks greater connectivity and cooperation with Southeast Asia.
Caution and Strategic Solutions
Intelligence assessments further suggest that China may be taking advantage of its growing role in Myanmar to increase the threat posed to India’s northeastern states. Insurgent organisations in Myanmar, including the United Wa State Army (UWSA), have traditionally worked with Indian militant elements. Chinese expansionism has the potential to enhance the cross-border flow of arms and insurgents, increasing security concerns for the Indian states in the northeast.