New Delhi: In a historic demographic milestone, the global population of individuals aged 65 and above has surpassed the number of children under the age of five for the first time in recorded history. A recent report by the United States Census Bureau indicates a seismic shift in global demographics, driven by plunging birth rates and increasing life expectancy.
According to the data, this aging trend is no longer confined to wealthy, developed nations. The world’s most populous countries, including India and China, have recorded fertility rates dropping below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman—the threshold required to keep a population stable.
In 2023, more than 71 per cent of the global population lived in countries where fertility was at or below this critical replacement level, a sharp increase from just 45 per cent in 2013. Experts term this phenomenon a “fertility trap,” where successively smaller younger generations replace older ones, significantly accelerating the aging of the overall population.
The statistical projections paint a stark picture for the coming decades. In 2025, there were approximately 852 million people aged 65 or older globally. This number is projected to more than double, reaching nearly 2 billion by 2060. Over the same period, the total global population is expected to grow from 8.13 billion to 10.23 billion. Notably, 55 per cent of all net population growth between 2025 and 2060 will stem exclusively from the expanding demographic of seniors.
Asia and Africa will witness the most rapid surge in elderly populations. In Asia, the number of individuals over 65 is expected to leap from 487 million in 2025 to 1.24 billion by 2060. Meanwhile, Africa’s senior population is projected to quadruple from 60 million to 249 million in the same timeframe.
This demographic inversion poses substantial challenges to global economies and governance. A shrinking working-age population paired with an expanding elderly demographic threatens to strain pension systems, healthcare services, and eldercare infrastructure, while triggering severe labour shortages in several countries.
However, researchers note that this shift does not have to result solely in an economic burden. According to Andrew Scott, an expert associated with the report, the aging population can be transformed into an economic asset through improved healthcare, extending working lifespans, and creating age-friendly employment opportunities.