Washington: With the clock ticking down to August 27 deadline, India finds itself in the crosshairs of US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy.
Starting Wednesday a punishing 50 per cent tariff will slam Indian exports to America, doubling the existing duties in what the White House calls a crackdown on nations fuelling Russia’s war machine through oil deals. It’s a move that’s sparked outrage and confusion, especially since China – the biggest guzzler of Russian crude – has been handed a 90-day lifeline to dodge similar heat.
The drama unfolded earlier this month when Trump, never one to shy from bold strokes, signed an executive order slapping an extra 25 per cent penalty on Indian goods. Washington insists it’s about starving Moscow of funds amid the grinding Ukraine conflict. “India’s buying oil from Russia, and that’s basically funding their war against Ukraine,” Trump has thundered in recent rallies.
New Delhi, however, isn’t backing down. Officials here stress that energy security comes first – we’ll source from wherever the deals are sharpest, they say, even as refiners mull trimming Russian imports to soften the blow.
But peel back the layers, and the plot thickens. Why pick on India when China’s chugging along with far bigger hauls? Customs data paints a clear picture: In 2024, Beijing snapped up a whopping 109 million tonnes of Russian oil, nearly a fifth of its energy needs. India? A comparatively modest 88 million tonnes. If anyone’s keeping Russia’s economy afloat, it’s the Dragon, not the Elephant. Yet, Trump extended a tariff truce with China just weeks ago, buying them 90 more days to negotiate without the hammer falling.
Insiders point to a tangle of economic dependencies holding Trump back. China’s grip on rare earth minerals – those vital bits for everything from iPhones to fighter jets – gives it serious leverage over US industries. Toss in America’s addiction to cheap Chinese manufacturing, and you see why rocking that boat could spell disaster. Giants like Apple, Walmart, and General Motors lean heavily on Beijing for raw materials and assembly lines. A full-on tariff war? That’d jack up prices for American shoppers and snarl global supply chains. No wonder Trump eased semiconductor curbs on China recently and even nodded to Nvidia shipping chips their way.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent didn’t hold back, labelling India’s oil play as straight-up “profiteering.” “Before the Ukraine mess, India’s Russian oil take was under 1 per cent – now it’s ballooned to 42 per cent,” he fumed in a recent chat. “They’re scooping up discounted crude, refining it, and flipping products for profit. That’s arbitrage, plain and simple.” On China, though, Bessent noted a milder spike – from 13 per cent pre-war to 16 per cent now – and defended the softer line.
Will China face the music next? Vice President JD Vance danced around that on August 12, calling it “a bit more complex.” “Our ties with China touch on loads of stuff unrelated to Russia,” he told reporters, hinting at the broader stakes in play. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed the caution, warning that sanctioning China over Russian oil could send energy costs skyrocketing worldwide. “China refines that stuff and pumps it into global markets – hit them, and everyone’s paying more at the pump,” he said.
As Indian businesses brace for the hit – from textiles to tech – the bigger question looms: Is this Trump’s way of reshaping alliances, or just a risky gamble that could backfire?