NewDelhi: As the voting date for the Delhi Assembly elections coming near day by day, a political battle is taking shape to make it exciting. This election in Delhi is not a one-sided shooting gallery, nor is there much of a wave for any party. Delhi elections are equally compelling this time, as each seat has such a close contest.
The fight is crucial as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is doing everything possible to keep Delhi under its control, whereas the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been working hard to bring down the 27-year-long exile from power. On the other hand, the Congress is attempting to bend the election into a three-way fight. So, the 2025 Delhi Assembly election is something else compared to the 2015 and 2020 elections. The election is entering a close race, which could transform the political landscape in the capital altogether.
Tight Races in Margin of Victory Races
Around 18 constituencies recorded a marginal difference in victory during the elections of 2020. The Kejriwal government was formed with the help of these seats. AAP wrested 13 much-contested seats from the BJP, which managed to win only four. Both sides will feature new candidates in many of those seats this time. As we enter the last leg of the race, the previous three elections suggest hope and tension simultaneously—for the two parties—over seats won with narrow margins.
Five years ago, AAP created history in the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections by bagging 62 out of 70 seats. However, the winning margin in 17 seats was sub-10k votes. There were 13 seats where the margin was less than 5 percent, of which AAP got ten seats and the BJP three, as per the vote percentage. So, in 2015, six-seat margins were smaller than 5 percent, while in 2013, that number was 27 seats.
How the dynamics have changed and what candidates need to do
Out of the 20 seats won by a 5-10% margin in the 2013 elections, AAP bagged 13, BJP seven, and Congress one. AAP won 6 this way, while BJP won 1. In 2015, 7 seats were won by 5-10% margins. Of the eight seats won with a 5-10% margin in 2020, six were held by AAP and two by BJP. AAP won 31 of the 38 seats in 2020, which had a victory margin of less than 15%, and BJP won the other seven.
Examination of the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections reveals that out of eight seats won by the BJP in the 2020 elections, the victory margin in four was quite narrow. The BJP has fielded new candidates for these seats, including Karawal Nagar, Gandhi Nagar, Vishwas Nagar, and Badarpur. For example, an MLA from Karawal Nagar, Mohan Singh Bisht, had to be shifted to Mustafabad, and Kapil Mishra got a ticket. Congress has replaced MLA Anil Kumar Bajpai in Gandhi Nagar with former Congress minister Arvinder Singh Lovely.
AAP’s Strategy and Challenges
It has replaced nine of the 13 MLAs it had snatched by narrow margins in 2020, fielding new faces or strong leaders from other parties against them. Getting in new candidates is an attempt to offset the anti-incumbency.
The political atmosphere around AAP has intensified, as the party’s victory in 2020 was also a thumping one, while the close fights are opening for the party with the elections on the door. In 2020, more candidates triumphed in narrow victories—up by less than 5% compared with 2015. For example, in 2020, only 17% of the seats were classified as being contested with a margin of less than 10,000 votes. Wins with a more significant margin of victory signal dominance, while narrow margins indicate a battle. Despite an excellent victory in recent elections, the changing margins from 2013 to 2020 are a potential storm on AAP’s path in the next assembly elections, due in 2025.
Lessons from History and the High Stakes Today
Two hundred eighty seats across the state went to polls in the last assembly elections, and, analysing the results, 69 were won by a 5% or less margin. Also, 43 were won with a 5–10% margin—nearly 40% of all seats were won with a <10% margin. Twenty-one seats were decided by less than 10% in the 2020 elections. This time, even a modest movement in voter preference can turn the whole political game around. So, Congress, the BJP, and the AAP are working hard.
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