Mumbai: The next Maharashtra Assembly election will be a decisive bout between the INDIA, an alliance headed by Congress and the NDA led by BJP. There are 288 constituencies in total and of these, 73 or a quarter, may be marginal, though they were indeed marginal in the previous election with minimal wins by a single vote. If you recall, in 2019, even these seats were won with less than 10 000 votes – a few of which could make the difference this time.
So when the nominations for the election is still on with the last date for the same being 29th of October the face of the Maharashtra assembly elections compared to the previous election has changed quite a lot. In the latest development, BJP led NDA boasts of Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction while the anti-BJP INDIA can count on Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP. Mixing into this are Prakash Ambedkar party, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, Raj Thackeray’s MNS and all are doing their best to get their slices.
Of the numerous competitive actions that fill the battle space, one of the most significant is the competition for close-margins seats.
Out of 861 assembly seats, in 2019, there were five seats with a winning margin of less than 1,000 votes; in addition, there were 28 assembly seats whose winners secured victories with a margin between 2,000 and 5,000 votes. It now hinges on these 73, BJP has clinched 28, NCP 15, Congress 12, Shiv Sena 5, and others including independents and other parties clinched the remaining 13. These contentious seats can be considered among key marginal ones where both the grand alliances are determined to tilt in their favour.
Of these, constituencies such as Chandivali, Arjuni-Morgaon and Daund gave close finishes, with victory margins measured in hundreds of votes only. According to some analysts, it is in these seats that marginal victories are achievable thus putting both coalitions on the edge.
Thus a changing political landscape is seen as the theme of political storeys
The political modality and relations have changed dramatically since the assembly elections. Where there was unity and competition between BJP and Shiv Sena back in the 2019 poll, the two are now opponents. Western Maharashtra, Mumbai and Marathwada area sensitive states thus the INDIA alliance the performed well during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls poses a big threat to the incumbent NDA.
The mastery which the incumbent was able to achieve largely due to winning 73 key seats adds such a large measure of uncertainty to the outcome. The 2019 margins of victory were especially low in certain constituencies like Beed, Chandivali and Sangola and this year’s results could easily be differ if the sentiment of the voter shifts.
What Lies Ahead?
As the parties know the stak, BJP led NDA has started spending for social welfare programmes to win over the voters’ hearts, similarly, the INDIA member satellites has intensified its grass root campaigning. However, with six leading party alliances in two different combinations this year, the political ground has shifted dramatically from before.
The significance of these key seats—marginal seats—can be underlined. They could literally swing or sink any future dispensation in Maharashtra, which is why these elections have been among the most watched state polls in recent years. The outcome remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: It is always essential that the slogan every vote counts hold particularly true in these 73 constituencies which are going to carve the political map of Maharashtra.