New Delhi: The BJP has haunted the small regional parties as it is foraying into each state. Having won Odisha, Maharashtra, Kashmir, and Haryana, the BJP now looks prepared to dethrone the AAP out of Delhi — that is only if it continues its winning streak as it did in other states. Delhi’s elections might also influence the outcome in Bihar, where Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is in power.
The BJP’s rise since 2014 has been mainly at the cost of the Congress. The exception to this has come in states like Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi and Odisha, where regional parties have still maintained some influence. The Congress improved its show in 2024 Lok Sabha elections through alliance, but the recent poll results in certain states have exposed its deficiencies.
Thus far, the BJP has eroded the political base of six smaller parties. These parties were former BJP partners but are now in an existential crisis.
Odisha: BJD in Crisis
Odisha was ruled by Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) for 24 years. Despite the BJP tsunami in 2014, the BJD always maintained its ground in politics. The BJD, however, faced a massive defeat in the 2024 elections. Since then, the party has seen several departures, with two Rajya Sabha MPs having already jumped ship. Naveen Patnaik, 77, is struggling to keep the party together.
Haryana: The Fall Of JJP And INLD
The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) was a formidable force in Haryana during the 90s. The INLD was split in 2019 into the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP). In the 2019 elections, the JJP was kingmaker and formed a government with the BJP. But in the 2024 elections, the JJP was wiped out, and the INLD could win only two seats.
Kashmir: PDP’s Struggles
The aforementioned party (PDP), which was in a coalition government with the BJP in 2014, is now a shadow of its past in Kashmir. The PDP won only three seats in the 2024 elections. In Yanam, erstwhile Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti is seeking a foothold in politics. In contrast, the BJP’s hold on the area has only grown stronger, with 28 seats in 2024 (25 in 2014).
Maharashtra: Regional Juggernauts that Stumbled
Similarly, in Maharashtra, more minor regional leaders such as Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar, Prakash Ambedkar, and Bachchu Kadu have recently lost their clout. These parties performed poorly in the 2024 assembly elections. The number of MLAs in Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena has now come down to 20, and of Sharad Pawar’s NCP to just 10. Neither leader is actually in charge of his original party anymore. Prakash Ambedkar and Bachchu Kadu’s parties are also battling for survival.
Bihar: The Next Battleground
Now, all eyes are on Bihar, where assembly polls are due later this year. Nitish Kumar is head of the JD(U), which is part of the ruling coalition, but the BJP is becoming so big that one wonders how long he will be able to continue as chief minister. The last elections also saw the JD(U) dwindle to 43 seats and the BJP unable to cross 74. Nevertheless, the BJP made Nitish Chief Minister. This time, however, BJP leaders in Bihar have openly favoured the contest without Nitish. While a decision is awaited from the central leadership, the party’s similar handling in Maharashtra, where Eknath Shinde had to resign as Chief Minister after a bad showing, can be expected in Bihar.
India is being transformed into a two-party system — and no other parties are doing better at surviving than the BJP. The Congress may have been able to make a sort of comeback using alliances, but the regional parties are finding it more challenging continuously to maintain their relevance so, as the BJP targets Bihar — the endgame for Nitish Kumar and other regional leaders who have exited the I.N.D.A alliance seems in sight — signalling the possibility of a major reconfiguration of Indian power parameters.