New Delhi: In a resounding vote of confidence for India’s economic resilience, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has hiked its growth projection for the current fiscal year to 6.6 per cent, shrugging off the sting of US President Donald Trump’s steep 50 per cent tariffs on Indian imports.
Released on Tuesday, the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report paints a picture of India powering ahead as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, even as global headwinds gather force.
The upgrade from the earlier 6.4 per cent estimate stems from a blistering 7.8 per cent expansion in the April-June quarter – the strongest in five quarters – which has more than cushioned the tariff blow. “Carryover from this robust first quarter outweighs the hike in US effective tariff rates on India since July,” the report notes, underscoring how domestic consumption and investment inflows are steering the ship steady.
Yet, the outlook isn’t all sunshine: for 2026-27, IMF has trimmed the forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2 per cent, factoring in lingering trade frictions. Globally, growth is tipped to dip from 3.3 per cent in 2024 to 3.2 per cent next year and 3.1 per cent in 2026, dragged down by protectionism and uncertainty. Emerging markets face a similar slowdown, from 4.3 per cent to 4.2 per cent and 4 per cent.
This comes hot on the heels of the World Bank’s recent nudge to 6.5 per cent for FY26. As Trump’s trade walls test nerves worldwide, India’s story of grit – bolstered by policy tweaks and digital strides – offers a silver lining, though experts warn of watchful eyes on export vulnerabilities.