Patna: With Bihar’s Assembly election due around October-November 2025, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) face a big challenge on their hands to remain on top politically. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP and JD(U), faces a complex electoral map due to factors like shifting caste equations, anti-incumbency, and their alliance. JD(U)’s poor performance could pose a threat to Nitish Kumar’s leadership, potentially severing ties with the BJP and reshaping Bihar’s political future.
Difficulties for Nitish Kumar and JD(U)
Nitish Kumar, Bihar’s longest-serving Chief Minister, has depended on his popularity with Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) as well as non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs), which, combined with a clean image as well as governance that emphasised development, made him a potent political force. But several factors cloud his prospects in 2025.
Health and Public Perception Concerns: Nitish, 74, has been a target of questions about whether he was healthy enough to mount an energetic campaign. His opponents, like the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Jan Suraj, have raised questions about his mental and physical fitness, fuelled by recent public appearances — including one where he was caught laughing during the national anthem and also a cancellation of another one because he comes down with the flu.
Anti-Incumbency And Alliance Hopping: Nitish’s notorious switching of alliances — rejoining the NDA in January 2024 after breaking away from the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan — has seen him being dubbed “Paltu Ram” (turncoat). This has led to deteriorating trust among some voters, including Muslims, who have moved towards the RJD since 2015, with JD(U)’s Muslim vote share declining to 12% in 2024 from 23.5% in 2014.
The RJD under Tejashwi Yadav: Caste calculus and RJD’s resurrection has built its position with the MY-BAAP strategy catering to Muslims, Yadavs, Bahujans, women, and the poor. Its 23% vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, compared to Janata Dal (United)’s 18.5%, suggests a clear message. The JD(U)’s traditional OBC base, including the Kushwahas, is threatened by the RJD’s Karabari image.
Emerging players include Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj party, which is gaining ground and has the potential to split votes among smaller castes and youth who are dissatisfied with established parties. Complex scene: Smaller NDA allies such as Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha also seek a larger impact, making seat-sharing more difficult.
Economic and Social Pressures: Even as Nitish attempts to portray himself as a “Sushasan Babu” (good governance) type, unemployment, inflation and feelings of governance gaps have triggered anti-incumbency after close to two decades of governance. Younger voters have prioritised jobs and development, while the narrative of mismanagement under RJD’s rule has lost some potency.
BJP Threatens if JD(U) Performs Poorly
The BJP, which has far more robust organisational footings and a vote share of about 20%, is the senior partner in the NDA. Projected to fight around 100 seats as against JD(U)’s 90-95. A poor performance by JD(U) would set off major repercussions:
Leadership Re-Evaluation: The BJP has publicly declared its support for Nitish as the NDA’s face for chief minister, but this is a farce. In December 2024, Deputy Chief Minister Vijay Kumar Sinha expressed discomfort with Nitish’s leadership. Despite Nitish having been in the role for a record 18 years, Sinha emphasised the need for “deeper deliberation” and insisted that any decision should be reached through consensus among BJP workers. A poor showing for the JD(U) could give the BJP reason to go for its candidate for chief minister, as happened in Maharashtra, when BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis replaced Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde.
Seat-sharing fracas: The BJP’s surveys to repurpose seat allocation based on winnability could push JD(U) to the periphery if it fails to mobilise its core. Nitish’s clout could suffer if he gets a smaller share of seats in future elections or if he plays a limited role in governance.
The centre of gravity of alliance stability JD(U)’s 12 Lok Sabha seats are vital for a majority of BJP-led NDA in the Centre. Given that the RJD and the INDIA bloc are also remaining open, a dismal Assembly poll performance for Nitish could prompt him to reevaluate his alliance. But a rift in JD(U), including leaders like Sanjay Jha and Lallan Singh, who have shown inclination towards the BJP, may destabilise Nitish’s party.
Rising Stakes: If the BJP gains a majority ahead of JD(U), as it did in 2020 by winning 74 seats to JD(U)’s 43, it can seek a major chunk of portfolios or the CM post. The BJP’s readiness to allow Nitish to govern as CM despite a lower seat count is an important tactical measure to preserve stability, but a vast gap in seats could change the calculus.
Electoral Outlook
The NDA winning 33-35 of Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats, the Mahagathbandhan is behind at 5-7, according to the India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation poll (January-February 2025). If the alliance lasts, the outcome indicates a decisive NDA edge, powered by the BJP’s upper-caste support, JD(U)’s EBC favour, and allies like LJP’s Dalit outreach. But Bihar’s arithmetic-based voting patterns indicate that it is necessary to have an NDA with both sides united to counter the RJD’s growing reach.
Nitish’s Pragati Yatra, which began in December 2024 from Champaran, seeks to strengthen his development credentials and counter RJD’s narrative. But Tejashwi Yadav’s aggressive campaigning and the RJD’s targeted focus on youth and jobs have kept the election race competitive.
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