Patna: For the lifelong opponent of dynasty in politics, Nitish Kumar, the task of holding onto things is getting ever more complicated. His opponents speak loudly of his political irrelevance, but it is not merely party members who sense that his clout is fading; his broader social base can feel it too. As a result, those who wish him well have called for his son Nishant Kumar to join politics—an appeal that has been growing over the last few months.
Nitish Kumar had a strategic mind, as suggested by Lalu Prasad Yadav many years ago. While Nitish does not come from a numerically significant caste, he managed to present himself as the leader of the disenfranchised during Lalu rule. Nitish, in a surgical way, sliced out Economically Backward Class (EBC) from other backward classes and created Mahadalit among Dalits, forming an impregnable vote bank. At the same time, he also attracted women by giving more representation in local bodies and in self-help groups.
Detours here and there have kept Nitish Kumar politically relevant for two decades, keeping power very much under his thumb. But his career, it appears, is entering its twilight; hence, the need for a successor has existed for a while. Bureaucrats-turned politicians such as R.C.P. Singh and Manish Verma, as well as many other names, were initially being discussed as potential heirs but had not survived long enough to lead. The party is now—no ifs and buts—confronted with a leadership crisis.
Nitish was often blamed for not grooming a successor, as none of the senior leaders in the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] appear capable of leading the party forward. Veterans like Sharad Yadav, Lalan Singh and Upendra Kushwaha have also known the limits of their wings within the party line. This has added to uncertainty on who will be responsible for JD(U)’s core 13-14% vote bank after Nitish. This fear has become more widespread in the last couple of years, and a serious contender has started emerging in Nishant Kumar with the blessing of party cadres and sympathisers.
Kurmi, the main community where Nitish has his support base, however, does not appear to be keen to hand this party over to anyone but Nishant. In light of this, Nitish’s family members have been encouraging him to join politics. That is also one of the better-known traditions of politics: Leaders are always advanced by army after army of publicly enthusiastic supporters, ready to take the stage so that the leader can appear as a reluctant, but personally committed, figure.
This begs the question: why did Nitish never nurture a second line of command? Tejashwi Yadav, Upendra Kushwaha, R.C.P., Singh or Manish Verma—the story was the same: everyone was brought into the limelight, some tensions were created, and everyone was sent to the background. Did Nitish know that this day would arrive? This is partly because of the insecurity Nitish feels about his party’s position after two decades in power and partly because of the need to put JD (U) ahead of everything else, a position Nishant seeks to occupy.
Nishant’s speculation of entering into politics has caused a buzz in the media and has left his family members and JD(U) supporters impressed. Amid the uncertainty surrounding the party’s future, it is being sought to create the impression that Nishant is the crisis manager who will guide the JD (U) ahead. BJP, which will administer the plan after considering Nitish’s health, says he represents the party’s leadership. This implies a reduced likelihood of merging JD(U)’s vote base with other parties.
Currently, Nitish Kumar is likely to take JD(U) into the next election. At the same time, Nishant has himself looked poised for more formal entry into the party apparatus. Given Nitish’s approach to politics, it is likely that JD (U) will leverage Nishant to increase its support base. Nishant said his father was perfectly fine and could remain in the Chief Minister’s office for another five years. In the meantime, he has also been repeatedly asking the party workers to work on strengthening the organisation.
He envisions JD(U) rising above its current third position in Bihar’s political hierarchy to ensure that Nitish avoids a fate similar to that of Eknath Shinde of Maharashtra, where he finds himself in a vulnerable and infamous position. Nishant, akin to his father, is mixing well with the Lalu Prasad family, but his comments on governance in Bihar prior to 2005 indicate his political line when one looks closely.
At this juncture, Nishant reiterates his father’s intention to lead for the next five years. But it is becoming quite obvious that he is being groomed to take over JD(U) eventually. Nishant’s patience and ability to communicate effectively with both the party wing and the electorate appear to be shaping the future of the party.